Why is housing pricing in Toronto so unique?
I think I’ve said this 100000 times to our agents and brokers, and every agent who will listen to me speak… but in case they (or you) through I was making it up; see below:
Canada Grew in population in 2022 by 1,050,110 people - the biggest single year ever, but not by much. 2022 was a larger growth amount by 2.7% over 2021, which was then the largest year of population growth ever. See the trend?
2021 and 2022 also make Canada the #1 ranked population growth country out of the OECD and the G7, and top 20 in the entire world. Keep in mind, this is not Canadians making babies, 95.9% of this growth is external immigration. And guess where they are all coming to? And I was wrong, I’ve told everyone that 500,000 came to Toronto in 2022, well I’m the first to admin it, I was wrong... it was 445,495. To put that into perspective that’s more people moving to Ontario, aka Toronto and the GTA, than the current population of Halifax or London, Ontario or Laval, or Regina and Saskatoon, combined.
165,000 went to Alberta, and this doesn’t include the 30,000 or so people from Ontario that have moved to AB in 2022/2023 either.
60% of those who came to the country in 2022 are non-permanent residents (work/student visas and refugee status etc.), 40% are permanent residents, and those number/targets are larger for 2023 and forward. Meaning, get ready for another 500,000 people in GTA in 2023, and 2024, and 2025 etc.
So, what does this mean? Toronto is short over 1,000,000 homes by 2030 as per the CMHC, so supply isn’t being fixed. The above means that we need to add another 100,000 in 2023 and 2024 just to ensure that that 1,000,000 doesn’t become 1,500,000.
Supply is the problem in Toronto and will be for many, many years to come, and as long as we have supply issues, pricing will remain stronger than the rest of the country. Even if the economy fails and the price of homes drops 10, 20, 50%, it will still rebound faster and rise here faster than anywhere else in the country. Aka, don’t short the Toronto real estate market.
- Toronto grew by 2.3%
- Montreal 2.9%
- Calgary 5.5%
- Ottawa 8.9%
- Edmonton 8.3%
- Winnipeg 6.3%
- Hamilton 6%
- Mississauga declined by .5% but Brampton grew by 10.6%